Following the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks’ season-opening loss, the discussion surrounding the team’s spot in the NCAA Tournament has heated up.
Miami (Ohio), ranked No. 20 with a 31-1 record, was unbeaten going into the Mid-American Conference tournament. But the RedHawks’ perfect run came to an end when they lost to the UMass Minutemen in the first round. A significant debate in college basketball has been triggered by the defeat: should Miami still be eligible for an at-large bid to March Madness if they fail to earn the MAC’s automatic qualification?
By nearly all conventional metrics, Miami’s season has been outstanding. The RedHawks became just the fifth team in the twenty-first century to make it to the conference tournament undefeated after finishing the regular season undefeated. The Saint Joseph’s Hawks, Wichita State Shockers, Kentucky Wildcats, and Gonzaga Bulldogs are the other teams that accomplished this.
Miami has been among Division I basketball’s most effective teams statistically. With a shooting percentage of 52.6% and a three-point shooting percentage of 39.3%, the RedHawks are ranked ninth in the country. They rank second in the nation behind the Alabama Crimson Tide with an average of 90.9 points per game. Additionally, Miami has one of the best winning margins in Division I—an average of 16 points.
Their success is also supported by a number of sophisticated metrics. Miami’s RPI ranking is No. 28, and their strength of record is ranked 21st in the country. Teams with this many victories have seldom missed the tournament in the past. No team with more than 28 victories has missed out on March Madness since the field was expanded in 1985. Miami’s argument is further strengthened by the fact that the selection committee has never rejected a team with fewer than four losses.
Nonetheless, detractors contend that the RedHawks’ resume is devoid of strong competition. Miami is ranked about No. 54 in the NCAA NET Rankings, which is low for an at-large pick. The San Diego State Aztecs made the First Four last year while ranked No. 52, so it is still possible to earn a bid from that position, but it is still a potential barrier.
Further issues are brought up by a closer examination of the schedule. Miami has only won two games in the second quarter and none in the first. They have a 15-0 record in Quad 4 games and have won most of their games against weaker opponents. Their tournament record is harmed by their loss to UMass, which also counts as a Quad 4 loss.
The strength of schedule metrics tell a similar story. The RedHawks are 93rd overall on the analytics site KenPom, and Miami’s schedule is 256th in the country. KenPom also says that their schedule is 269th, and their non-conference schedule is one of the weakest in Division I.
The argument got even louder when Bruce Pearl, the head coach of the Auburn Tigers, said that Miami didn’t belong in the tournament. Pearl said that Miami might need to win the MAC tournament to get a spot if the selection committee picks the best 68 teams.
David Sayler, the athletic director at Miami, strongly disagreed with that assessment and took to social media to say that Pearl’s comments were “flat out wrong.” Even though Pearl and Miami head coach Travis Steele’s disagreement eventually cooled down, it made the national conversation even more heated.
Miami’s season is still one of the strangest in college basketball in recent years. The RedHawks have had an amazing season with 31 wins, showing that they are consistent and in charge. At the same time, analysts and people who watch the selection committee are worried about their weak schedule and lack of high-quality wins.
As Selection Sunday gets closer, Miami (Ohio) is one of the most controversial bubble teams in the country. Their record shows that they should be in March Madness, but the selection committee still has a lot of hard questions about how strong their résumé is.
