Concerns over the threat posed by Hezbollah were formally raised by Israeli officials before air attacks were launched, according to a leaked US embassy memo. In the internal assessment, it was concluded that the Lebanese state was unlikely to succeed in disarming the group.
The embassy cable, dated 27 February and seen by the Guardian, was sent to Washington a day before joint aerial strikes were carried out by Israel and the United States against Iran. It was reported that Hezbollah’s military capabilities were being rebuilt at a pace faster than they could be weakened by the Lebanese armed forces, leaving Israel’s northern border exposed.
Trust in both Beirut and Damascus was described as lacking, with neither government being viewed as capable of containing the threat. Iranian funding was said to be continuing to reach Hezbollah through Turkey and other channels, despite the November 2024 ceasefire. As a result, an escalation in Israeli military operations was described as unavoidable.
Grave concern was also expressed over Turkish military entrenchment in Syria, which was warned could become a strategic threat to Israel. Doubts were further raised about Syria’s leadership’s ability to control its security forces.
Soon after the memo was sent, airstrikes were carried out by Israel on Hezbollah-dominated areas in southern Beirut. Within days, rockets were fired into northern Israel, the ceasefire was strained further, and regional tensions were significantly intensified.
