Warnings about the threat posed by Hezbollah were raised by Israeli officials before air attacks were launched, according to a leaked US embassy memo. In the internal assessment, serious doubts were expressed that the Lebanese state would be able to disarm the group.
The cable, dated 27 February and seen by the Guardian, was sent to Washington a day before joint airstrikes were launched by Israel and the United States against Iran. It was stated that Hezbollah’s military capabilities were being rebuilt more rapidly than they could be weakened by Lebanese armed forces, leaving Israel’s northern border exposed.
Confidence in Beirut and Damascus was described as low, with neither government being viewed as capable of containing the threat. It was also noted that Iranian funding was still reaching Hezbollah through Turkey and other routes, despite the November 2024 ceasefire. As a result, an escalation in Israeli military action was described as increasingly necessary.
Grave concern was also recorded over Turkish military entrenchment in Syria, which was warned could evolve into a strategic threat to Israel. Doubts were further expressed about the Syrian leadership’s ability and willingness to control its security forces.
Soon after the memo was sent, airstrikes were carried out by Israel on Hezbollah-linked areas in southern Beirut. Within days, rockets were fired into northern Israel, the ceasefire was further strained, and regional tensions were sharply intensified.
